Jose A. Egea1*, Manuel Caro2, Jesús García-Brunton2, Jesu Gambín 3, José Egea 1 le David Ruiz 1*
- 1Sehlopha sa ho Hōlisa Litholoana, Lefapha la Ts'ebetso ea Limela, CEBAS-CSIC, Murcia, Spain
- 2Murcia Institute of Agri-Food Research and Development, Murcia, Spain
- 3Sekolo sa Khoebo sa ENAE, Univesithi ea Murcia, Murcia, Spain
Tlhahiso ea litholoana tsa majoe e bohlokoa haholo moruong Spain. Libaka tsa temo ea mefuta ena ea litholoana (ke hore, perekisi, apricot, plum le cherry e monate) li akaretsa libaka tse fapaneng tsa boemo ba leholimo ka har'a naha. Phetoho ea boemo ba leholimo e se e ntse e hlahisa keketseho ea mocheso o tloaelehileng o nang le matla a khethehileng libakeng tse ling tse kang tsa Mediterranean. Liphetoho tsena li lebisa ho fokotseheng ha serame se bokellaneng, se ka bang le tšusumetso e kholo ho phenology. Prunus Mefuta e joalo ka litholoana tsa majoe ka lebaka la, mohlala, mathata a ho koahela litlhoko tse batang tsa ho senya, ho hlaha ha serame sa morao-rao, kapa mocheso o sa tloaelehang oa pele. Lintlha tsena kaofela li ka ama haholo tlhahiso ea litholoana le boleng 'me ka hona li baka litlamorao tse mpe haholo ho latela pono ea moruo oa sechaba libakeng tse ntseng li le teng. Kahoo, ho khetholla libaka tsa temo ea hajoale ho latela maemo a leholimo a leholimo (mohlala, ho bokellana ha serame le mocheso le menyetla ea serame le liketsahalo tsa pele tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso), ho ipapisitsoe le data e tsoang liteisheneng tse 270 tsa boemo ba leholimo lilemong tse 20 tse fetileng, e etsoa mosebetsing ona. hlahisa setshoantsho se rutang ka maemo a hona jwale. Ntle le moo, likhakanyo tsa boemo ba leholimo ba nako e tlang ho tsoa ho mefuta e fapaneng ea boemo ba leholimo ba lefatše (data e nkiloe ho Meteorological State Agency of Spain—AEMET) ho fihla ho 2065 bakeng sa maemo a mabeli a Representative Concentration Pathway (ke hore, RCP4.5 le RCP8.5) le ona a hlahlojoa. Ka ho sebelisa maemo a hajoale e le motheo le ho nahana ka maemo a kamoso, ho ka nahanoa ka tlhahisoleseling mabapi le ho ikamahanya le maemo ha joale le nakong e tlang ea mefuta e fapaneng ea mefuta / mefuta e fapaneng libakeng tse fapaneng tse ntseng li hola. Tlhahisoleseding ena e ka ba motheo oa sesebelisoa sa ho tšehetsa liqeto ho thusa ba amehang ba fapaneng ho nka liqeto tse nepahetseng mabapi le litholoana tsa majoe tsa hona joale le tsa nakong e tlang kapa temo ea mefuta e meng e itekanetseng Spain.
Selelekela
Spain ke e 'ngoe ea linaha tse hlahisang litholoana tsa majoe lefatšeng ka bophara (ke hore, perekisi, apricot, plum le cherry e monate) ka karolelano ea selemo le selemo ea tlhahiso ea lithane tse ka bang limilione tse peli. Ho lengoa ha litholoana tsena ho na le karolo ea bohlokoa haholo ea moruo ka har'a naha, e ka bang 2 ha.FAOSTAT, 2019). Libaka tse kholo tse ntseng li hola Spain bakeng sa lijalo tsena li fumaneha libakeng tse nang le litšobotsi tse fapaneng tsa agroclimatic: ho tloha libakeng tse futhumetseng joalo ka Phula ea Guadalquivir le karolo e kholo ea sebaka sa Mediterranean ho ea libakeng tse batang joalo ka leboea ho Extremadura, Phula ea Ebro le libaka tse ling tse kahare ho sebaka sa Mediterranean. (bona Setšoantšo sa 1). Kaha lijalo tsena li hloka hore ho be le serame se lekaneng sa mariha hore li se ke tsa hlola li e-ba teng ho qoba mathata a tlhahiso.Atkinson et al., 2013)Campoy et al., 2011b; Luedeling et al., 2011; Luedeling, 2012; Julian et al., 2007; Guo et al., 2015; 2019; Chmielewski et al., 2018), le (iv) khetha mekhoa e metle ea temo le thekenoloji ho fokotsa phello ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo (Campoy et al., 2010; Mahmood et al., 2018).
Litlhoko tsa serame le mocheso (Fadón et al., 2020b) kapa boemo ba tšenyo ea serame (Miranda et al., 2005) ea mefuta ea hajoale e lengoang hona joale e ka kopanngoa le metrics ea agroclimatic libakeng tse fapaneng ho theha lisebelisoa tsa ho etsa liqeto tse thusang bahlahisi le ba amehang ba bang ho rala melaoana e nepahetseng ea tlhahiso le moruo bakeng sa nako e mahareng le e telele. Lisebelisoa tse teng tsa ho etsa mohlala ho sebetsana le letoto le leholo la maemo a leholimo le phenological e se e ntse e sebetsa e le motheo oa ho aha lisebelisoa tsa liqeto tse boletsoeng ka holimo (Luedeling, 2019; Luedeling et al., 2021; Miranda et al., 2021). Litekanyetso tsa boemo ba leholimo sebakeng sa Mediterranean li senola hore liphello tsa ho futhumala ha lefatše li ka ba matla haholo sebakeng sena (Giorgi le Lionello, 2008; MedECC, 2020; IPCC, 2021), ka hona mehato ea tebello e bohlokoa ho qoba mathata a nakong e tlang a tlhahiso, a ka amang moruo oa libaka tse itseng ka botebo joalo ka tse hlahisitsoeng thutong ena (Olesen le Bindi, 2002; Benmoussa et al., 2018).
Liphuputso tse fapaneng tsa lipatlisiso li hlokometse tšusumetso e mpe ea ho futhumala ha lefatše tlhahisong ea litholoana le linate tse itekanetseng libakeng tse fapaneng ho pholletsa le polanete. Lisosa tse kholo li amana le ho fokotseha ha serame sa mariha le hoja ho eketseha ha likotsi tsa serame ka lebaka la tsoelo-pele e lebeletsoeng ea ho thunya le ho palesa ho boetse ho hlokomeloa liphuputsong tse ling. Ka mohlala, Fernandez et al. e ile ea bolela esale pele ho fokotseha ha serame sa mariha se hlokahalang bakeng sa tlhahiso ea litholoana tse butsoitseng naheng ea Chile, ka litlamorao tse mpe tse lebelletsoeng libakeng tse ka leboea ho naha. Ka nako e ts'oanang, ba ile ba fana ka maikutlo a phokotso e kholo ea menyetla ea serame nakong ea ho phatloha ho hoholo ha lifate tsa litholoana bakeng sa libaka tsohle tse nahanoang.Fernandez le al., 2020); Lorite et al. e hlahlobile liketsahalo tse kang khaello ea serame sa mariha, kotsi ea serame le maemo a futhumetseng nakong ea lipalesa Hloahloeng ea Iberia bakeng sa mefuta e meng ea almonde e kopanyang likhakanyo tsa boemo ba leholimo le tlhahisoleseling ea phenological. Ba fumane hore, ka kakaretso (le ho itšetlehile ka mofuta o nkoang e le mofuta oa mofuta ofe), (i) ho haella ha serame sa mariha ho tla bonahala haholoanyane lebōpong la leoatle la Mediterranean le Phula ea Guadalquivir, (ii) maemo a futhumetseng nakong ea lipalesa a tla ba matla haholoanyane Bohareng. Plateau le Ebro Valley, le (iii) kotsi ea serame e tla fokotsoa libakeng tse itseng tsa Northern Plateau le Northern Hilly Areas (Lorite et al., 2020). Benmoussa et al. Ho nahanoa hore nakong e tlang ho tla fokotseha ha serame sa mariha Tunisia se ka amang tlhahiso ea litholoana le linate haholo. Mohlala, maemong a hlokang tšepo, ke mefuta ea almonde e batang feela e ka bang teng. Maemong a mang, mefuta e meng ea limela tsa pistachios le perekisi e ka sebetsa le ha nako e telele e le teng karolong e ka Leboea-Bophirima ea naha.Benmoussa et al., 2020); Fraga le Santos ba ile ba nahana ka ho bokellana ha mohatsela le mocheso nakong e tlang le litlamorao tsa bona tlhahisong ea litholoana tse fapaneng Portugal. Ba ile ba hakanya ho theoha ho matla ha serame sa mariha se tla ama haholo libaka tse ka hare-hare ho naha. Libaka tse holang liapole tse ka leboea li tla pepeseha haholo ho fokotseha ha serame. Bangoli ba ile ba boela ba fana ka maikutlo a ho eketseha ha mocheso oa ho bokella mocheso, o nang le tšusumetso e phahameng libakeng tse ka boroa le lebōpong la leoatle la naha. Ba totobatsa hore 'nete ena e ka eketsa kotsi ea ho senyeha ha serame ka lebaka la tsoelo-pele ea mekhahlelo ea phenological.Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; Fraga le Santos, 2021) bapisa maemo a hajoale a libaka tsa tlhahiso ea litholoana tse futhumetseng Spain le maemo a tlang a phetoho ea boemo ba leholimo mabapi le ho bokellana ha serame. Ba boletse esale pele tahlehelo ea bohlokoa ea serame libakeng tse ling (mohlala, Boroa-Bochabela kapa sebakeng sa Gualdalquivir) le haufinyane. Bakeng sa bokamoso bo hole (> 2070), bangoli bana ba boletse hore ha ho nahanoa ka libaka tse ntseng li hola hona joale, limela tsa plum, almond le liapole li ka angoa haholo ke khaello ea serame.Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021).
Thutong ena, re hlahlobile mefuta e ka sehloohong ea agroclimatic e amanang le ho ikamahanya le litholoana tsa majoe libakeng tse fapaneng ka hare ho Spain, ho kenyelletsa le moo tlhahiso ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa ea litholoana tsa majoe e etsahalang ho sebelisoa lintlha tse tsoang liteisheneng tsa leholimo tse 270 nakong ea 2000-2020. Sena se tsamaisana le likhakanyo tsa nako e tlang tsa mocheso ho hakanya ho bata le ho bokellana ha mocheso le menyetla ea kamoso ea serame le liketsahalo tsa pele tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso ha li bapisoa le maemo a hajoale. Tlhahisoleseding ena e ka ba molemo haholo bakeng sa ho nka liqeto tse nepahetseng tse amanang le ho theha lirapa tse ncha tsa lifate tsa litholoana, ho fallisa tse teng hona joale, kapa ho khetha mefuta e nepahetseng bakeng sa ho fumana phaello ha nako e ntse e ea.
Tlatsetso e kholo ea thuto ena ke hore re hlahlobile ka nako e ts'oanang mefuta e fapaneng ea agroclimatic e amanang le ho ikamahanya le litholoana tsa majoe. Ha se feela ho bokellana ha serame ho phethahatsa li-CRs joalo ka ha ho entsoe thutong ka Rodríguez le ba bang. (2019, 2021) empa hape le ho bokella mocheso bakeng sa lipalesa tse nepahetseng, likotsi tsa serame, le ho fetoha ho sa tloaelehang ho hlalosoang ka har'a lingoliloeng: monyetla oa liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso nakong ea mariha tse ka matlafatsang ho lokolloa ha endodormancy ka phello e mpe tlhahisong ea litholoana, boleng le chai, joalo ka ha ho bile joalo. e bonoang libakeng tse futhumetseng nakong ea lilemo tse fetileng. Re sebelisitse lintlha tse tsoang ho marang-rang a teteaneng haholo a liteishene tsa boemo ba leholimo tse fanang ka lintlha tse nepahetseng bakeng sa maemo a hajoale. Re tsepamisitse maikutlo holim'a libaka tsa hona joale tse hlahisang ha liqeto tse mabapi le ho ikamahanya le mocheso li tla nkoa libakeng tseo, moo theknoloji e loketseng le tsebo li lutseng hantle. Libakeng tse joalo, ho fallisoa ha lijalo ho tla hlahisa litholoana tse sa rateheng tsa moruo oa sechaba le ho fokotseha ha baahi. Ho feta moo, bakeng sa ho tsebahatsa boemo ba hajoale, re sebelisitse lithempereichara tsa 'nete tsa hora ho fapana le tse hakantsoeng, tse fanang ka ho nepahala ha liphetho ha li bapisoa le liphuputso tse ling moo mocheso oa hora o kenyellelitsoeng ho tsoa letsatsi le letsatsi. Qeto e sebelisitsoeng (~5 km) e ntle ho feta lithutong tse ling tse tšoanang Spain (Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; Lorite et al., 2020) le ho thusa ho etsa liqeto le boemong ba lehae.
Lisebelisoa le mekhoa
Lintlha tsa Tlelaemete le Liphetoho tsa Agroclimatic
Lintlha tsa boemo ba leholimo tse tsoang liteisheneng tse 340 tsa boemo ba leholimo tse fumanehang libakeng tse ka sehloohong tse hlahisang litholoana Spain (bona Setšoantšo sa 1) li ile tsa sebelisoa ho lekola metrics ea agroclimatic. Lintlha li ne li na le mefuta e fapaneng ea maemo a leholimo, ho kenyeletsoa boholo ba mocheso le mocheso o tlase (°C), mongobo o lekanyelitsoeng (%), pula (mm), evapotranspiration (ETo, mm), le mahlaseli a letsatsi (W/m.2). Lirekoto le litaba tse sa fellang li ile tsa fumanoa liteisheneng tse neng li nahanoa. Ka mor'a ho sebelisa molao oa Sepanishe (UNE 500540, 2004), palo ea ho qetela ea liteishene tse 270 e ile ea khethoa. Lintlha tsa mocheso oa hora li ne li feletse ntle le lihora tse se nang letho tse tsamaellanang le liketsahalo tsa tlhokomelo tse neng li sa tlatsoa kaha li ne li kenyelelitsoe ka peresente e sa tsotelleng ea kakaretso. Lithempereichara tse bolelang hora ka hora nakong ea 2000–2020 li ile tsa sebelisoa ho bala mefuta-futa ea maemo a leholimo a leholimo, ho kenyeletsoa le serame le ho bokellana ha mocheso hammoho le monyetla oa ho ba le serame se kotsi le liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso mariha. Palo ea lilemo tse felletseng seteisheneng ka 'ngoe e fapana ho ea ka seteishene: ho tloha ho lilemo tse 5 ho isa ho tse 21 (bohare = 20) ho latela seteishene.
Ho bokellana ha pholile sehleng ka seng ho balletsoe ho tloha ka la 1 Pulungoana ho fihlela la 28 Hlakola selemong se latelang. Utah (Richardson et al., 1974) le Matla (Fishman et al., 1987) ho ile ha sebelisoa mehlala ho etsa lipalo tsena. Ho bokella mocheso bakeng sa sehla se seng le se seng ho baloa ho tloha ka la 1 Pherekhong ho isa la 8 Mmesa (hoo e ka bang libeke tse 14) ho sebelisoa Richardson (Richardson et al., 1974) le Anderson (Anderson et al., 1986) mehlala, e fanang ka sephetho sa lihora tse ntseng li hola tsa degree (GDHs). Menyetla ea liketsahalo tsa serame le mocheso o sa tloaelehang o ne o baloa ka beke ka tsela e latelang: bekeng e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe, ketsahalo ea serame e etsahala haeba mocheso o theohela ka tlase ho -1 ° C bonyane lihora tse tharo tse latellanang. Joale, monyetla oa hore ho be le liketsahalo tsa serame bekeng e itseng o hlalosoa e le makhetlo a mangata bekeng eo e bileng le ketsahalo e le 'ngoe ea serame nakong ea thuto e arotsoe ka palo ea lilemo tse nahanoang. Ka ho tšoanang, ketsahalo e sa tloaelehang ea mocheso e etsahala haeba mocheso o nyolohela ka holimo ho 25 ° C bonyane lihora tse tharo tse latellanang. Joale, monyetla oa ho hlaha ha liketsahalo tsa mocheso o sa tloaelehang o baloa joalo ka ha ho hlalositsoe liketsahalong tsa serame. Beke ea 1 e qalile ka la 1 Pherekhong. Bakeng sa liketsahalo tsa serame, libeke ho tloha ho 2 ho isa ho 10 li ne li nkuoa e le libeke tse ka bang kotsi. Libeke tsa pele lipakeng (ke hore, beke ea 2 ho isa ho 5-6) e tla ba tse kotsi ka ho fetisisa libakeng tse futhumetseng, athe tse ling (ke hore, libeke tse 5-6 ho isa ho 10) e tla ba tsona tse mahlonoko libakeng tse batang. Bakeng sa liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso, nako e nahanoang e ne e tloha bekeng ea 49 ea selemo se fetileng (ho qala ka Tšitoe) ho isa ho la 8 (mafelong a Hlakola) ha liketsahalo tsena li ka matlafatsa tokollo ea pele ea boroko e amanang le mathata a tlhahiso ea morao-rao.
Maemo a Kamoso
Mabapi le maemo a nakong e tlang, ho ile ha sebelisoa likhakanyo tsa mocheso tse baliloeng ke Setsi sa Naha sa Meteorological sa Spain (AEMET). AEMET e 'nile ea hlahisa lilemong tsa morao tjena lethathamo la litšupiso tse theolelang likhakanyo tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo Spain ka ho sebelisa mekhoa ea ho fokotsa lipalo-palo ho liphello tsa mekhoa ea boemo ba leholimo ea lefatše (GCMs) kapa ho sebelisa boitsebiso bo hlahisoang ke mekhoa e matla ea ho theola boemo ba leholimo ka merero ea Europe kapa matsapa a machaba. joalo ka PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, le EURO-CORDEX (Amblar-Francés et al., 2018). Thutong ena, re sebelisitse lithempereichara tsa letsatsi le letsatsi (ke hore, boholo le bonyane) re sebelisa ho theola lipalo ho ipapisitse le marang-rang a maiketsetso. Sena se hlahlobiloe e le mokhoa o loketseng oa ho hlahisa likhakanyo tsa boemo ba leholimo maemong a hajoale le a nakong e tlang Spain ha ho ntse ho fokotsa leeme la mohlala oa GCMs (Hernanz et al., 2022a,b) holim'a marang-rang a qeto ea 5 km. Ho se ho nahanoa ka maemo a mabeli a nakoana, e leng, 2025–2045 (e hlalosoang ke 2035) le 2045–2065 (e hlalosoang ke 2055) ho fana ka liphetho tsa nako e khutšoane le e mahareng. Ho ile ha shejoa litsela tse peli tse emelang mahloriso, ke hore, RCP4.5 le RCP8.5.van Vuuren et al., 2011). Ela hloko, li-GCM tse leshome le motso o mong li sebelisitsoe thutong ena (Lethathamo 1). Liphetho li ile tsa hlahisoa ho sebelisoa e libini mokhoa (Semenov le Stratonovich, 2010; Wallach et al., 2018) moo palo-hare ea litekanyetso tsa metrics e lekanyelitsoeng (mohlala, ho bokellana ha mocheso le mocheso kapa menyetla) e bakiloeng ke mefuta eohle e sebelisitsoeng mehatong e latelang. Lithempereichara tsa hora ho bala li-index tsa agroclimatic li ile tsa etsisoa ho tloha letsatsi le letsatsi ho sebelisoa sephutheloana sa chillR (Luedeling, 2019).
Lethathamo 1
TEBOHO 1. Lethathamo la mehlala ea boemo ba leholimo lefatšeng ka bophara e sebelisitsoeng thutong ena.
Ho bapisa mefuta-futa ea agroclimatic maemong a hona joale le a nakong e tlang, libaka tsa sebele tsa liteishene tsa boemo ba leholimo li ile tsa bapisoa le lintlha tsa tsona tse haufi haholo ho tloha ho marang-rang. Boholo, bonyane, le bohole bo boholo ho tloha liteisheneng tsa boemo ba leholimo ho ea libakeng tsa bona tse haufi-ufi ka marang-rang e ne e le 3.87, 0.26, le 2.14 km, ka ho latellana. Maemong ohle (maemo a hajoale le a nakong e tlang), sebaka se kopaneng se pota-potileng liteishene tsa boemo ba leholimo tse nahanoang (ke hore, sehole sa lik'hilomithara tse 50 ho tloha sebakeng se haufi sa boemo ba leholimo) se balletsoe ho sebelisoa mokhoa o fapaneng oa ho lekanya sebaka.
Results
Phomolo ea Phomolo
Joalokaha ho boletsoe ka holimo, mefuta e 'meli e ile ea sebelisoa ho bala ho bokellana ha serame, e leng, Utah (li-unit tsa chill) le mofuta oa Dynamic (ka likaroloana). Ho sebelisoa litekanyetso tsa kakaretso tse bokelletsoeng ka har'a nako eohle bakeng sa liteishene tsohle, ho ile ha fumanoa khokahano e phahameng haholo lipakeng tsa li-index ka bobeli (R2 = 0.95, Setšoantšo sa tlatsetso 1). Ka hona, liphetho li hlahisoa ho sebelisoa e le 'ngoe feela ea tsona (likarolo). Setšoantšo sa 2 e bonts'a mekhoa ea sebaka sa likarolo tse tlase tsa serame ka linako tse fapaneng tse nahanoang. Boemong ba hajoale, re ka bona hore ho na le libaka tse 'maloa tsa libaka tse nang le serame se phahameng (≥75 likarolo), joalo ka Phula ea Ebro, Extremadura e ka leboea, le libaka tse ling tse ka hare ho Mediterranean. Ke feela Phuleng ea Mediterranean le Guadalquivir, moo ho fumanoang libaka tse futhumetseng tse nang le serame se ka tlaase ho likarolo tse 60 (esita le tse ka tlaase ho 50 libakeng tse ling tse ka thōko). Maemo a kamoso a bontša phokotseho e hlakileng ea serame se bokelletsoeng libakeng tse futhumetseng, karolong e ka leboea ea Extremadura le libakeng tse ling tsa Mediterranean. Ho fokotseha ha serame se bokellaneng Phuleng ea Ebro ho tla hlahisoa karolong e ka bochabela ea sebaka seo, ha ka hare ho naha ho tla bokella serame se seholo sa mariha esita le maemong a hlokang tšepo (mohlala, 2055_RCP8.5). Litlamorao tsa ho futhumala ha lefatše ka lebaka la ho theoha ha serame sa mariha li matla haholoanyane maemong a 2055_RCP8.5 joalo ka ha ho lebelletsoe. Tafole e tlatsetsang 1-4 bonts'a ho bokellana ha serame nakong e nahanoang (1st Pulungoana ho isa bofelong ba Hlakola) ka likarolo tsa libaka le mefuta eohle maemong a tlang. Palo ea kakaretso ea liphetho tsa mefuta e leshome le motso o mong e ea bontšoa, hammoho le serame se bokelletsoeng bakeng sa nako ea 2000–2020 bakeng sa papiso.
Setšoantšo sa 2
TLHAHLISO 2. Ho bokellana ha serame libakeng tse ka sehloohong tsa tlhahiso ea majoe Spain bakeng sa boemo ba hona joale (hoo e ka bang 2000-2020), nako e 'meli (2025-2045 le 2045-2065) le maemo a mabeli a tlang (RCP4.5 le RCP8.5).
Ho lekola hore na ho fokotseha ho lebelletsoeng ha mohatsela ho tla ba le tšusumetso e ts'oanang libakeng ho ipapisitsoe le ho bokellana ha tsona ha serame ha joale, ho ile ha etsoa sehlopha sa liteishene tsa boemo ba leholimo tse 270, ho li arola ho latela palo e bokelletsoeng ea maemo a teng maemong a hajoale: pokello e tlase (< Likarolo tse 60, liteishene tse 34), pokello e mahareng (pakeng tsa likarolo tse 60 le 80, liteishene tse 121), le pokello e phahameng (kaholimo ho likarolo tse 80, liteishene tse 115). Setšoantšo sa 3 e bontša likarolo tsa likarolo tse bokelletsoeng sebakeng se seng le se seng bakeng sa mefuta e meraro ea libaka. Ho fokotseha ho bonoang ha mohatsela ho ntse ho lebelletsoe ho latela boemo bo bong le bo bong. Mabapi le phapang pakeng tsa litekanyetso tsa bohareng pakeng tsa maemo a hona joale le a nakong e tlang, ho bonahala eka mefuta e meraro ea libaka e fana ka boitšoaro bo tšoanang (e leng se bolelang hore tahlehelo ea liphesente e phahame libakeng tse tlaase tsa ho bokella). Leha ho le joalo, ho phatlalatsoa ha data ho fapane haholo. Libaka tse bokelletsoeng ha serame se tlase li bonts'a tšilafalo e tlase (e nang le likarolo tse ling tse tlase qetellong ea kabo) ho feta libaka tse mahareng, tse fanang ka phallo e phahameng empa ho se na ntle. Tlhahlobo ea libaka tsena tsa libaka tseo ho batang haholo ho tsona e senola hore bokantle ba maemo a mane a kamoso bo lumellana le sebaka se kahare sa Mediterranean (Játiva). Bakeng sa libaka tse bokellaneng tse batang, sebaka se kantle maemong ohle (ho kenyeletsoa le boemo ba hajoale) se lumellana le sebaka se lebopong la leoatle la Mediterranean (Almería). Likarolo tsa phepelo e phahameng ea ho ajoa libakeng tseo ho batang ho tlaase li tsamaellana le libaka tse ka hare ho Mediterranean (ke hore, Montesa, Callosa de Sarriá le Murcia) leha e ka ba lintho tse entsoeng ka matsoho kaha likhakanyo li bolela esale pele ho bokellana ha serame nakong e tlang ho feta hona joale. boemo. Li ka bakoa ke liphapang tse ka bang teng tsa boemo ba leholimo pakeng tsa sebaka sa sebele sa liteishene tsa boemo ba leholimo le sebaka sa tsona se haufi le marang-rang bakeng sa likhakanyo tsa nako e tlang.
Setšoantšo sa 3
TLHAHLISO 3. Mabokose a lihatsela tse bokelletsoeng maemong ohle a tlase (<60 likarolo), mahareng (pakeng tsa likarolo tse 60 le 80), le holimo (> likarolo tse 80) liteishene tse bokellaneng tsa mohatsela, ho ipapisitsoe le boemo ba hajoale.
Ho bokella mocheso
Ho bokella mocheso ho ile ha baloa ho sebelisoa mefuta e 'meli (ke hore, mefuta ea Richardson le Anderson) ka ho tšoana ho bokellana ha serame. Ho ile ha boela ha fumanoa kamano e phahameng pakeng tsa liphetho tsa mehlala ka bobeli (R2 = 0.998, Setšoantšo sa tlatsetso 2). Ka hona, liphetho li hlahisoa ho sebelisoa feela liphetho tsa mohlala oa Anderson. Setšoantšo sa 4 e bonts'a mekhoa ea sebaka sa GDH e bolelang ka linako tse fapaneng tse nkiloeng. Maemo ohle a mabapi le GDH a bonahala a hokahana le maemo a bona a ho bokellana ha serame (Setšoantšo sa 2). Libaka tseo mohatsela o bokellelang mocheso o tlase hona joale, ho fapana le hoo. Ha ho bokellana ha serame ho fokotseha maemong a kamoso, pokello ea mocheso e eketseha ka ho lekana sebakeng ka seng. Mohlala, coefficient ea khokahano ea Pearson lipakeng tsa mohatsela o lahlehileng le pokello ea mocheso bakeng sa maemo a hajoale le a 2055_RCP8.5 ke 0.68 (p-boleng <1e-15).
Setšoantšo sa 4
TLHAHLISO 4. Ho bokellana ha mocheso libakeng tse ka sehloohong tsa tlhahiso ea majoe Spain bakeng sa boemo ba hona joale (hoo e ka bang 2000-2020), nako e 'meli (2025-2045 le 2045-2065) le maemo a mabeli a tlang (RCP4.5 le RCP8.5)
Joalo ka nyeoeng ea ho bokellana ha serame, litlamorao tsa keketseho ea GDH li matla haholoanyane maemong a 2055_RCP8.5 joalo ka ha ho lebelletsoe. Tafole e tlatsetsang 5-8 bonts'a ho bokellana ha mocheso nakong e nahanoang (1st January-8th April) ho GDH bakeng sa libaka tsohle le mehlala maemong a mang le a mang a nahanoang. Palo e tloaelehileng ea lihlahisoa tsa mefuta e leshome le motso o mong e bontšoa, hammoho le mocheso o bokelitsoeng o ngolisitsoeng bakeng sa nako ea 2000-2020 bakeng sa merero ea papiso.
Frost le Mocheso o sa Tloaelehileng oa Liketsahalo Menyetla
Monyetla oa liketsahalo tsa serame joalo ka ha ho hlalositsoe ka holimo o bontšitsoe ho Setšoantšo sa 5 ho bapisa libeke tsa 2-10 bakeng sa maemo a hona joale le 2035_RCP4.5 le 2055_RCP8.5 (menyetla feela ≥ 10%). Boemong ba hona joale, menyetla e kholo ea liketsahalo tsa serame e tlalehiloe haholo-holo libakeng tsa Phula ea Ebro empa hape le ka leboea ho Extremadura le libakeng tse ka hare ho Mediterranean. Menyetla ea serame e fokotseha ho tloha libekeng tsa 2 ho isa ho 10 joalo ka ha ho lebelletsoe, empa libaka tse ling tsa Ebro Valley li ntse li fana ka monyetla o moholo oa serame ka beke ea 10. Maemo a hlahlobiloeng a nakong e tlang Setšoantšo sa 5 ke ba nang le tšepo ka ho fetisisa (ke hore, 2035_RCP4.5) le ba hlokang tšepo (ke hore, 2055_RCP8.5), ka ho latellana, mabapi le ho phahama ha mocheso. Monyetla oa liketsahalo tsa serame nyamela ho tloha Extremadura le fokotseha libakeng tsohle, athe libaka tse fokolang feela tsa Phula ea Ebro le libaka tse ling tse ka thōko ka hare ho naha ea Mediterranean li bontša menyetla e ka holimo ho 10% esita le bekeng ea 10. Joalo ka boemo ba hona joale, menyetla ea serame e fokotseha ho tloha libeke tse 2 ho isa ho tse 10. Ka mokhoa o tsotehang, maemo a 2035_RCP4.5 le 2055_RCP8.5 a fana ka litšoantšo tse tšoanang ho ea ka menyetla ea liketsahalo tsa serame, ho senola hore Ebro Valley le libaka tse ling tse ka hare ho Mediterranean li tla ba le liketsahalo tsa serame maemong ohle a nahanoang.
Setšoantšo sa 5
TLHAHLISO 5. Monyetla oa liketsahalo tsa serame libakeng tse ka sehloohong tsa tlhahiso ea majoe Spain bakeng sa libeke tse 2 ho isa ho 10 bakeng sa maemo a hona joale, 2035_RCP4.5 le 2055_RCP8.5.
Puisano le Qetello
Boithuto bona bo lekile ho khetholla litholoana tsa majoe tse ka sehloohong tse hlahisang libaka tsa Spain ho sebelisa data ea nalane ea agroclimatic (haholo-holo mocheso) ho tloha liteisheneng tsa boemo ba leholimo tse 270 ho hasana libakeng tse joalo le ho bapisa liphetho le likhakanyo tsa nako e tlang ka nako e 'meli le maemo a RCP. Libaka tsa boithuto li ile tsa khethoa ho ipapisitsoe le taba ea hore liqeto tsa hajoale le tsa nako e tlang mabapi le temo ea litholoana tsa majoe (ke hore, perekisi, apricot, plum le cherry e monate) li tla nkuoa haholo-holo libakeng tsa tlhahiso ea hona joale, moo tsebo le thekenoloji ea ho lema lijalo tsena li kentsoe ka matla. Ka hona, thuto ena ha e tsepamise maikutlo libakeng tse ling tsa nako e tlang bakeng sa temo ea litholoana tsa majoe.
Liphetoho tse kholo tse khomphuthang, e leng, serame le ho bokellana ha mocheso, li senola hore libaka tseo ho nahanoang hore li fapane ho ea ka pono ea boemo ba leholimo le hore phetoho ea boemo ba leholimo e tla ba le tšusumetso ea bohlokoa, haholo libakeng tse futhumetseng le nakong e mahareng. Mefuta e sebelisoang ho bala e 'ngoe ea tsona (ke hore, Utah le Dynamic for chill le Richardson le Anderson bakeng sa ho bokella mocheso) li bonts'a likamano tse phahameng haholo joalo ka ha li fumanoe pele Ruiz le ba bang. (2007, 2018).
Liphokotso tsa bohlokoa tsa ho bokellana ha serame li lebelletsoe libakeng tsohle, tse lumellanang le lithuto tse fetileng libakeng tsa Mediterranean (Benmoussa et al., 2018, 2020; Rodríguez et al., 2019; Delgado et al., 2021; Fraga le Santos, 2021). Ho fokotseha ha serame ho tla tšoana ka boleng bo felletseng libakeng tsohle tse ithutoang, empa tse futhumetseng (ke hore, sebaka sa Mediterranean le Phula ea Guadalquivir) li ka ameha haholo mabapi le ho tšoaneleha ha temo ea litholoana tsa majoe kaha maemo a bona a hajoale e se e le moeli mefuta e mengata. Libakeng tse batang tse kang Ebro Valley le Extremadura, ho fokotseha ha serame e ke ke ea e-ba tšitiso ho tsoela pele ho lema, le hoja libakeng tse itseng tse batang tsa Extremadura le Mediterranean, ho fokotseha ha serame ho tla ba matla ho feta libakeng tse ling tse batang. Ke ho hlokomela hore, ho latela Setšoantšo sa 3, ho theoha ka tšohanyetso ho bokellaneng ha serame pakeng tsa boemo ba hona joale le bokamoso bo haufi bo hlokomeloa. Qeto ea marang-rang a sebelisitsoeng, leha e le hantle (~5 km) e ka ba sesosa sa phello ena. Mehloli e meng e ka bang teng ea liphapang tse lebisang phapanong e fetelletseng lipakeng tsa se reriloeng le boleng ba 'nete e ka ba leeme le setseng la GCM le sa fokotseheng ka botlalo nakong ea ts'ebetso ea ho theola, kapa taba ea hore re bapisa lipalo tse entsoeng le mocheso oa hora oa nnete (ke hore, hona joale). scenario) le lipalo tse entsoeng ka li-curve tse loketseng tsa mocheso tse tsoang ho mocheso o lebelletsoeng oa letsatsi le letsatsi le bonyane ba mocheso (Linville, 1990) bakeng sa maemo a tlang. Marotholi a ts'oanang a tšohanyetso haufinyane a ile a bonoa ke Rodríguez et al., ea ileng a bolela esale pele ho fokotseha hoa likarolo tse 30 tse batang nakong ea 2021-2050 libakeng tse ling tsa Spain (Rodríguez et al., 2019), e lumellanang le liphetho tsa rona. Benmoussa et al. (2020), Delgado et al. (2021), 'me Fraga le Santos (2021) e boetse e tlaleha ho theoha ha tšohanyetso lipakeng tsa maemo a nalane le a nakong e tlang Tunisia, Portugal, le Asturias (North Spain), ka ho latellana. Joalo ka molemong oa rona, lithuto tsena li boetse li bonts'itse hore ha ho liphapang tsa bohlokoa bakeng sa serame se bokelletsoeng tse hlahang haufinyane ho sa tsotelehe RCP e nkuoang. Khahlanong le ho bokellana ha mocheso, ho bokellana ha mocheso ho tla nyoloha maemong ohle (haholo-holo ka 2055_RCP8.5 joalo ka ha ho lebelletsoe), 'me phetoho ea eona e hanana le sena sa ho bokellana ha serame. Sena se ile sa boela sa hlokomeloa ke Fraga le Santos (2021) bakeng sa Portugal.
Menyetla ea serame le liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso libekeng moo li ka amang chai le tlhahiso haholo (mohlala, serame sa morao-rao kapa liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso pele ho lokolloa ha endodormancy) le tsona li ile tsa balloa. Bakeng sa boemo ba hajoale, liketsahalo tsa serame li etsahala khafetsa libakeng tse batang, joalo ka ha ho lebelletsoe. Liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso libekeng tsa bohlokoa li ne li tsepamisitsoe sebakeng sa Mediterranean lilemong tse fetileng empa ka menyetla e tlaase haholo. Likhakanyo tsa nako e tlang tsa mefuta ena li bontša hore liketsahalo tsa serame ka libeke moo tlhahiso ea litholoana tsa majoe e ka amehang (Miranda et al., 2005; Julian et al., 2007) e tla fokotseha ha lilemo li ntse li tsoela pele 'me e tla fokotseha khafetsa bakeng sa RCP8.5, e lumellanang le lithuto tse fetileng (Leolini et al., 2018). Leha ho le joalo, libaka tse ling tsa Phula ea Ebro le libaka tse itseng tse ka hare ho libaka tsa Mediterranean li ntse li tla ba le liketsahalo tse ngata tsa serame nakong ea libeke tse ntseng li le teng esita le maemong a futhumetseng haholo (ke hore, 2055_RCP8.5, Setšoantšo sa 5). Tlhaloso ea ketsahalo ea serame ho latela mocheso le nako ea ho pepeseha e amana haufi-ufi le mohato oa phenological oa mofuta o ntseng o le teng (Miranda et al., 2005). Ha ho nahanoa ka mefuta e mengata ea mefuta e mengata ea litholoana tsa majoe, ho tloha tlase haholo ho isa ho CR e phahameng haholo, le palo ea libaka tse hlahlobiloeng, ho tloha ho batang ho ea ho mofuthu, ho theha tlhaloso e itseng ea ketsahalo ea serame ha ho khonehe thutong ena ka lebaka la bongata bo boholo ba tlhahisoleseding e amehang. Mefuta ena ea lithuto hangata e etsoa ho sebelisoa libaka tse 'maloa le/kapa mefuta e meng, joalo ka e etsoang ke Lorite et al. (2020) bakeng sa lialmonde Spain, Fernandez le al. (2020) naheng ea Chile, ea ileng a etsa khomphutha ea bonyane mocheso o ka tlase ho 0°C nakong ea lipalesa tsa mefuta e mengata ea lifate tse hlabang tse lengoang sebakeng se seng le se seng sa tse robong tse nahanoang, kapa Parker le ba bang. (2021) ba ileng ba nahana ka lithempereichara tse fapaneng le mekhahlelo ea phenological bakeng sa mefuta e meraro (ke hore, lialmonde, li-avocado le lilamunu) empa hape a etsa sebopeho se akaretsang sa sebaka seo ka ho nahana ka mocheso o tharo (0, −2, le +2°C) le nako ea ho pepeseha. Khetho ea rona ea −1°C le bonyane lihora tse tharo tse latellanang e reretsoe ho tšoaea ho fetoha ha serame ho e-na le ho amana le tšenyo e itseng ho mefuta e itseng, e ka etsang hore thuto e fapane. Tlhaloso ena e ile ea amoheloa ka mor'a ho fumana maikutlo a litsebi. Ka lebaka la palo e pharaletseng ea mefuta ea limela ho latela CR le HR le mefuta e fapaneng ea puso ea mocheso libakeng tse nahanoang phuputsong ena, re khethile libeke tseo (ho tloha ho 2 ho isa ho 10) moo mefuta eohle (kapa boholo) ea mefuta-futa e ka bang teng. e ka hlaseloang habonolo ke serame ho latela boemo ba eona ba phenological. Bakeng sa ho etsa liqeto, bahlahisi ba lokela ho khetha 'mapa o lumellanang hantle le maemo a bona (ke hore, mofuta oa limela/sebaka) ho etsa qeto e nepahetseng. Ka kakaretso, libaka tse futhumetseng le/kapa mefuta ea lipalesa tsa pele e tla amahanngoa le libeke tsa pejana sebakeng seo ho nahanoang hore ke sona, athe libaka tse batang le/kapa mefuta e sa tsoaneng ea lipalesa e tla amahanngoa le libeke tse tlang ka har'a mofuta o nahanoang. Liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso mariha tse ka matlafatsang ho lokolloa ha endodormancy, tse amang tlhahiso hampe (Viti le Monteleone, 1995; Rodrigo le Herrero, 2002; Ladwig et al., 2019), e tla eketsoa haholo-holo Guadalquivir Valley, libakeng tse lebōpong la leoatle la Mediterranean, hape le Extremadura le libakeng tse ling tsa Phula ea Ebro bohareng kapa mafelong a February (Setšoantšo sa 6). Kakaretso ea metric ena hangata ha e buuoe libukeng empa e ka tsosa litaba tsa bohlokoa tsa tlhahiso libakeng tse futhumetseng joalo ka ha ho hlokometsoe lilemong tsa morao tjena. Hape, ho beha 25°C kapa ka holimo bonyane lihora tse tharo tse latellanang ho hlalosa ketsahalo e joalo ho ile ha susumetsoa ke maikutlo a litsebi. Joalo ka menyetla ea liketsahalo tsa serame, re khethile libeke tseo (ho tloha ho 49 ho isa ho 8) moo mefuta eohle (kapa boholo) ba mefuta / sebaka e ka bang kotsing ea ho angoa ke liketsahalo tsena ho latela maemo a tsona a phenological. Ka kakaretso, libaka tse futhumetseng le/kapa mefuta ea lipalesa tsa pele e tla amahanngoa le libeke tsa pejana sebakeng seo ho nahanoang hore ke sona, athe libaka tse batang le/kapa mefuta e sa tsoaneng ea lipalesa e tla amahanngoa le libeke tse tlang ka har'a mofuta o nahanoang.
Melemo ea temo ea leholimo e baliloeng thutong ena e fana ka leseli la bohlokoa bakeng sa bahlahisi ho khetha mefuta e nepahetseng ka ho fetisisa sebakeng se seng le se seng sa tlhahiso ho latela pono e ikamahanyang le maemo. Semela se seng le se seng se na le li-CRs tsa sona tsa ho senya mamello (Campoy et al., 2011b; Fadón et al., 2020b). Ho fokotseha ha serame joalo ka ha ho nahanoa maemong a kamoso ho ka etsa hore mefuta e seng e lengoe ha joale e se ke ea phethahatsa CR ea eona libakeng tse itseng, haholo-holo libakeng tsa Mediterranean le Guadalquivir Valley, tse seng li ntse li futhumetse. Sena se tla kenyelletsa ho lokolloa ha endodormancy e sa phethahalang e amang lifate tsa litholoana ka likarolo tse tharo tse kholo, e leng, marotholi a lipalesa ('me kahoo a sa thunya hantle), ho lieha ho thunya le ho mela, le ho hloka ho tšoana ha mekhoa ka bobeli, e leng se lebisang mathateng a tebileng a tlhahiso.Legave et al., 1983; Erez, 2000; Atkinson et al., 2013). Tsena tsohle li ka hlahisa tahlehelo ea bohlokoa ea moruo ho bahlahisi. Moelelong ona, tsebo ka CR bakeng sa mefuta e fapaneng ea mefuta e fapaneng e bohlokoa le hoja tlhahisoleseding e teng hona joale e batla e haella lifateng tsa litholoana tsa majoe.Fadón et al., 2020b), ho kenyelletsa perekisi (Maulión et al., 2014), mabolilane (Ruiz et al., 2007), plum (Ruiz et al., 2018), le ciliegia e monate (Alburquerque et al., 2008).
Libakeng tse futhumetseng joalo ka Phula ea Mediterranean le Guadalquivir, moo serame se bokelletsoeng se leng ka tlase ho likarolo tse 60 maemong a hajoale, ho lengoa mefuta e sa tsoa khuoa e nang le CR lipakeng tsa 30 le 60. Phethahatso ea CR bakeng sa lijalo tsena e ka ba kotsing maemong ohle a kamoso a hlahlobiloeng (Setšoantšo sa 2). Ho etsa bonnete ba ho ikamahanya le maemo a mefuta e fapaneng ea mefuta/khalthiba libakeng tsena, ho ka hlokahala hore ho fallisoe, 'me mefuta e meng ea mefuta e lokela ho fallisetsoa libakeng tse haufi (libaka tse ka hare ho sebaka sa Mediterranean kapa ho ea Extremadura tabeng ea Phula ea Guadalquivir) moo CR e tla phethahala esita le maemong a tlang, mme likotsi tsa serame li lebelletsoe ho fokotseha. Boemong bona, ho hlahisoa kapa nts'etsopele ea mefuta e nang le CR e tlase haholo e fetoha sepheo sa bohlokoa se lokelang ho nahanoa mananeong a ho ikatisa a mefuta e ntseng e le teng, haholo-holo hore e tšoanele libaka tse futhumetseng tseo ho tsona ho tla ba kotsing nakong e tlang. scenarios. Ho seng joalo, libaka tsena li ke ke tsa khona ho boloka mesebetsi ea tsona ea tlhahiso le moruo e amanang le tlhahiso ea litholoana tsa majoe. Ntle le sena, mekhoa le maano a fapaneng a agronomic a ka sebelisoa ho fokotsa ho theoha ha serame libakeng tsena bonyane sebakeng sa heno. Tšebeliso ea li-bio-stimulants ho senya endodormancy pele e phethahatsa CR kapa tšebeliso ea matlooa a shading nakong ea mekhahlelo e fapaneng ea dormancy e se e hlalositsoe libakeng tse futhumetseng bakeng sa tlhahiso ea litholoana tsa majoe.Gilreath le Buchanan, 1981; Erez, 1987; Costa et al., 2004; Campoy et al., 2010; Petri et al., 2014), leha lipatlisiso tse ling le ntlafatso li tlameha ho etsoa ho etsa hore mekhoa ena e atlehe haholoanyane le ho khothaletsa ts'ebeliso ea bona e hlophisehileng. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, libakeng tse batang ka ho fetesisa tse kang Ebro Valley, Extremadura e ka leboea, le libakeng tse ling tsa hare-hare sebakeng sa Mediterranean, ho lebeletsoe hore ho be le serame se fokolang, se ka lumellang mefuta ea khale ho feta ea hona joale, e neng e ka eketsa palo ea mefuta ea limela le, ka hona, tlhahiso ho marakeng e nang le liphello tse ntle tsa moruo sebakeng seo. Ka kakaretso, libakeng tsohle tsa tlhahiso, ho bohlokoa ho nahana ka mefuta ea hona joale e lenngoeng le ho sekaseka e leng pheletsong ea ho phethahala ha CR ho e nkela sebaka kapa ho e tsamaisa kapa ho hlahisa mekhoa ea tsamaiso e hlalositsoeng kaholimo ho netefatsa ho ikamahanya le phetoho e ncha ea boemo ba leholimo. scenarios.
Mabapi le ho bokella mocheso, maemo a nakong e tlang a bolela esale pele keketseho ea phapang ena libakeng tsohle tse nahanoang (Setšoantšo sa 4). Libakeng tse futhumetseng le tse bohareng, phetoho ena ha e na matla joalo ka ho bokellana ha serame empa e ka ba le tšusumetso e nepahetseng ho phenology, e hlahisang tsoelo-pele matsatsing a lipalesa 'me kahoo e eketsa kotsi e ka bang teng ea kotsi ea serame (Mosedale et al., 2015; Unterberger et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2019). E le ntlha e eketsehileng, tsoelo-pele ena ea lipalesa e tla kenyelletsa tsoelo-pele ea ho butsoa hape (Peñuelas le Filella, 2001; Campoy et al., 2011b), e tlamehang ho eloa hloko ke bahlahisi ho beha lihlahisoa tsa bona mebarakeng ka leano. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, libakeng tse batang, khaello ea ho bokella mocheso maemong a hona joale a ka senya nts'etsopele ea phenological le kholo ea litholoana (Fadón et al., 2020a). Libaka tsena tse batang hajoale li tla ratoa ke keketseho e boletsoeng esale pele ea ho bokella mocheso bakeng sa maemo a tlang. Joalokaha ho bontšitsoe ho Setšoantšo sa 6, liketsahalo tse sa tloaelehang tsa mocheso li tla ba teng hangata maemong a tlang ka matsatsi ao lifate tsa litholoana li e-s'o lokolle enddormancy, haholo-holo libakeng tse futhumetseng tse kang Phula ea Guadalquivir le libakeng tsa Mediterranean. Liketsahalo tsena li ka ba le phello e mpe haholo ha CR e koaheloa ka mokhoa o sa fellang (hoo e ka bang 60-70%), e leng se bakang tokollo e sa fellang ea dormancy e ka kenyelletsang mathata a limela le lipalesa, tse nang le phello e mpe ho sete ea litholoana le chai (Rodrigo le Herrero, 2002; Campoy et al., 2011a).
Leha ho le joalo, liphetoho tsamaisong ea serame le ho bokella mocheso ha li na phello e tšoanang ho mefuta eohle ea limela le libaka tsa tsona kaha liphello tse ling tsa matšeliso li ka etsahala mabapi le ho bokellana ha mocheso / mocheso ho latela tlhahiso ea endodormancy kapa ho bolela matsatsi a lipalesa (Mopapa le al., 2014). Ntle le moo, sebopeho sa agroclimatic sa libaka sebakeng sa sebaka ka seng se ka hloka tlhahlobo e itseng ea data ka lebaka la ho fapana ha libaka (Lorite et al., 2020) ho etsa liqeto tse nepahetseng mabapi le khetho ea mofuta o nepahetseng. Liphetho tse hlahisitsoeng thutong ena li ka ba molemo eseng feela bakeng sa tlhahiso ea litholoana tsa majoe empa hape le litholoana tse ling tse itekanetseng tse bohlokoa haholo libakeng tse ntseng li le teng, mohlala, lifate tsa morara tse La Rioja (Ebro Valley) kapa tse ling. Liphetho tsena e ka ba motheo oa mekhoa ea tšehetso ea liqeto ho thusa bahlahisi ho etsa liqeto tse nepahetseng (mohlala, khetho ea mofuta, ho falla, le ho kenya tšebetsong mekhoa ea taolo ea phokotso) nakong e mahareng le e telele.
Polelo ea Phumano ea data
Menehelo ea mantlha e hlahisitsoeng thutong e kenyellelitsoe sengolong/Boitsebiso bo Eketsehileng, lipotso tse ling li ka lebisoa ho bangoli ba tsamaisanang le bona.
Menehelo ea Mongoli
MC, JG-B, JG, le DR ba ile ba emola le ho rala thuto. MC e fane ka data ea agroclimatic bakeng sa boemo ba hajoale. JAE e entse lipalo bakeng sa maemo a tlang. JAE le DR ba ile ba ngola karolo e khōlō ea buka e ngotsoeng ka letsoho. JE e fane ka leseli mabapi le likarolo tsa tekheniki tsa agronomic. JG e tsamaisitse projeke ea boqapi e tšehelitseng lipatlisiso tsena ka lichelete. Bangoli bohle ba ntlafalitse tokomane mme ba amohela mofuta o rometsoeng.
dithuso tsa ditjhelete
Tšehetso ea lichelete e fanoe ke Lekala la Temo, Litlhapi le Lijo la Spain ka Morero oa Innovation "Ho ikamahanya le karolo ea litholoana tsa majoe ho fetola boemo ba leholimo" (REF: MAPA-PNDR 20190020007385) le ke PRIMA, lenaneo le tšehetsoeng tlas'a H2020, European Union's Framework. lenaneo la lipatlisiso le boqapi (morero oa "AdaMedOr"; nomoro ea thuso ea PCI2020-112113 ea Lekala la Spain la Saense le Boqapi).
Khohlano ea Thahasello
Bangoli ba bolela hore lipatlisiso li ne li etsoa ka ho se be le likamano leha e le life tsa khoebo kapa tsa lichelete tse ka nkoang e le khohlano e ka 'nang ea e-ba le thahasello.
Moqolo oa Mohoeletsi
Litlaleho tsohle tse hlalositsoeng sehloohong sena ke tsa bangoli feela 'me ha li hlile ha li emele tsa mekhatlo ea bona e ikopantseng, kapa tsa mohatisi, bahlophisi le bahlahlobi. Sehlahisoa sefe kapa sefe se ka hlahlojoang sengoloa sena, kapa tseko e ka etsoang ke moetsi oa sona, ha sea tiisetsoa kapa se amohetsoe ke mohatisi.
lumela hore baa fokola
Re leboha litho tsohle tsa Spanish Operative Group "Aptation of stone fruit sector to climate change" (FECOAM, FECOAV, ANECOOP, Frutaria, Basol Fruits, Fundación Universidad-Empresa de la Región de Murcia, Fundación Cajamar) bakeng sa tlatsetso ea bona ea bohlokoa ho ntshetsopele ya morero. Re leboha AEMET ka lintlha tse fumanehang leqepheng la eona la marang-rang (http://www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat/datos_diarios).
Boitsebiso bo Eketsehileng
The Supplementary Material bakeng sa sehlooho sena se ka fumaneha Inthaneteng ka: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.842628/full#supplementary-material
Tlatsetso Setšoantšo sa 1 | Kamano lipakeng tsa palo e bokelletsoeng le likarolo tse batang bakeng sa boemo ba hajoale liteisheneng tsohle tsa leholimo.
Tlatsetso Setšoantšo sa 2 | Kamano lipakeng tsa palo e bokelletsoeng ea GDH bakeng sa mefuta ea Anderson le Richardson bakeng sa boemo ba hajoale liteisheneng tsohle tsa boemo ba leholimo.
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Keywords: Prunus, litholoana tsa lejoe, ho ikamahanya le maemo, ho bokellana ha serame, phenology, kotsi ea serame, khetho ea mefuta-futa, metrics ea agroclimatic
Tlhaloso: Egea JA, Caro M, García-Brunton J, Gambín J, Egea J and Ruiz D (2022) Agroclimatic Metrics for the Main Stone Fruit Areas in Spain in the Current and future Scenarios Phetoho ea Tlelaemete: Liphello Ho Tsoa Ponong e Fetohang. Ka pele. Semela Sci. 13:842628. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.842628
Re amohetse: 23 ea December 2021; E amohetse: 02 May 2022;
E phatlalalitsoe: 08 June 2022.
E hlophisitsoeng ke:Hisayo Yamane, Univesithi ea Kyoto, Japane
Hlahloba by:Liang Guo, Univesithi ea Northwest A&F, China
Kirti Rajagopalan, Univesithi ea Washington State, United States
Copyright © 2022 Egea, Caro, García-Brunton, Gambín, Egea le Ruiz. Ena ke sengoloa sa phihlello se bulehileng se ajoa tlasa lipehelo tsa License ea Boikarabelo ba Creative Commons (CC BY). Ts'ebeliso, ho ajoa kapa ho hlahisoa liphatlalatsong tse ling li lumelletsoe, ha feela mongoli (bang) le mong'a sengoli a ngolisitsoe ka molao le hore phatlalatso ea mantlha koranteng ena e bontšitsoe ho latela tloaelo e amohetsoeng ea thuto. Ha ho ts'ebeliso, ho tsamaisoa kapa ho hlahisoa hape hoa lumelloa ho sa lumellaneng le lipehelo tsena.
Ngollano: Jose A. Egea, jaegea@cebas.csic.es; David Ruiz, druiz@cebas.csic.es
Mohloli: https://www.frontiersin.org